贝索斯认为 70% 的确定性是做出决定的适当分界点。这意味着一旦我们掌握了 70% 的所需信息就立即行动，而不是等待更长时间。在 70% 的确定性下做出决定，然后迅速修正方向，比等待 90% 的确定性要有效得多。 可逆决策与不可逆决策
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Some decisions are consequential and irreversible or nearly irreversible – one-way doors – and these decisions must be made methodically, carefully, slowly, with great deliberation and consultation. If you walk through and don’t like what you see on the other side, you can’t get back to where you were before. We can call these Type 1 decisions. But most decisions aren’t like that – they are changeable, reversible – they’re two-way doors. If you’ve made a suboptimal Type 2 decision, you don’t have to live with the consequences for that long. You can reopen the door and go back through. Type 2 decisions can and should be made quickly by high judgment individuals or small groups. 有些决定是后果性的、不可逆转的或几乎不可逆转的——单向门——而这些决定必须有条不紊、仔细、缓慢地做出，并经过深思熟虑和协商。如果你走过并且不喜欢另一边看到的东西，你就无法回到之前的地方。我们可以将这些称为第一类决策。但大多数决定并非如此——它们是可变的、可逆的——它们是双向的门。如果您做出了次优的第 2 类决定，您不必长期承受后果。您可以重新打开门并返回。第 2 类决策可以而且应该由具有高判断力的个人或小组快速做出。
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Decisions fall somewhere on the continuum from reversible to irreversible. You can tell where a decision lies on this spectrum by asking how much it would cost to undo. The higher the cost to undo, the more irreversible it is. The lower the cost, the more reversible it is.
决策处于从可逆到不可逆的连续体中的某个位置。您可以通过询问撤消该决定的成本来判断该决定在该范围内的位置。撤消的成本越高，它就越不可逆转。成本越低，可逆性就越大。 尽快做出可逆的决定，并尽可能晚地做出不可逆的决定
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Make reversible decisions as soon as possible and make irreversible decisions as late as possible.
尽快做出可逆的决定，并尽可能晚地做出不可逆的决定。
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When decisions are reversible, make them fast. Your biggest risk is dragging your feet and not making a decision. The cost to acquire additional information isn’t worth the effort.
当决策是可逆的时，要尽快做出决定。你最大的风险是拖延而不做出决定。获取额外信息的成本不值得。
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When decisions are irreversible, slow them down. The biggest risk is making the wrong decision. The cost to get the information we need to reduce uncertainty is worth the time and effort.
当决定不可逆转时，放慢速度。最大的风险是做出错误的决定。获取减少不确定性所需的信息所花费的时间和精力是值得的。
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Bezos considers 70% certainty as the cut-off point where it is appropriate to make a decision. That means acting once we have 70% of the required information, instead of waiting longer. Making a decision at 70% certainty and then quickly course-correcting is much more effective than waiting for 90% certainty.
贝索斯认为 70% 的确定性是做出决定的适当分界点。这意味着一旦我们掌握了 70% 的所需信息就立即行动，而不是等待更长时间。在 70% 的确定性下做出决定，然后迅速修正方向，比等待 90% 的确定性要有效得多。
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The biggest risk to irreversible decisions is deciding before you need to. The biggest risk to reversible ones is waiting until the last minute.
不可逆转决策的最大风险是在需要之前做出决定。可逆风险的最大风险是等到最后一刻。
Make reversible decisions as soon as possible and make irreversible decisions as late as possible.
尽快做出可逆的决定，并尽可能晚地做出不可逆的决定。 烧掉船只，迫使行动致力于决策的目的
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I realised that I should burn the ships. The metaphor comes from Hernán Cortés, the Spanish conquistador, who upon arriving in the New World, ordered his men to burn their ships. By doing so, Cortés eliminated any possibility of retreat and forced his soldiers to fully commit to their mission. 这个比喻来自西班牙征服者埃尔南-科尔特斯，他在抵达新大陆后，命令手下烧毁船只。通过这样做，科尔特斯消除了任何撤退的可能性，并迫使他的士兵全身心地投入到他们的任务中。 ⤴️