- 我意识到，这个过程与在失去平衡的恐惧中伸出一条腿，然后恢复平衡，向前迈进，再用另一条腿重复这一过程有很大关系。**失败时失去平衡，成功时恢复平衡，然后继续前进。摔倒的恐惧、自信、恢复平衡—这是一个引人入胜的人生隐喻。风险是前进过程的一半。**在实现目标的过程中，失败的风险是与生俱来的。——理查德·扫罗·沃曼（Richard Saul Wurman）TED创始人 对失败风险的看法Quote
- Three Filters
When I was a child, I once saw someone in a wheelchair. My mother told me that the person in the wheelchair had been in an accident and would recover, but would need to learn to walk again. That was a revelation to me because it seemed that once we’d learned to walk, we’d always know how to walk. The notion of learning to walk has lingered in my mind, and I’ve contemplated the process of teaching someone to walk again. I realized that this process has a lot to do with thrusting a leg out into the terror of losing your balance, then regaining your equilibrium, moving forward, and then repeating with your other leg. Failure as loss of balance, the success of equilibrium, and you move forward. Terror of falling, confidence, regaining your balance — it’s a fascinating metaphor for life. Risk is half of the process of moving forward. The risk of failing is inherent in achieving a goal.
- 小时候，有一次我看到有人坐在轮椅上。妈妈告诉我，轮椅上的人出了车祸，会康复，但需要重新学习走路。这给了我很大的启示，因为我们似乎一旦学会了走路，就会一直知道如何走路。学走路的概念在我脑海中挥之不去，我一直在思考教人重新走路的过程。我意识到，这个过程与在失去平衡的恐惧中伸出一条腿，然后恢复平衡，向前迈进，再用另一条腿重复这一过程有很大关系。**失败时失去平衡，成功时恢复平衡，然后继续前进。摔倒的恐惧、自信、恢复平衡—这是一个引人入胜的人生隐喻。风险是前进过程的一半。**在实现目标的过程中，失败的风险是与生俱来的。——理查德·扫罗·沃曼（Richard Saul Wurman）对失败风险的看法
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Our tendency to favor known risk over unknown risk is called ambiguity aversion. The concept was popularized by Daniel Ellsberg (the same guy who leaked the Pentagon Papers) in 1961. Ellsberg found that people prefer choices with calculable risk, even in instances where the unknown alternative might produce a better result.
我们偏爱已知风险而不是未知风险的倾向被称为模糊厌恶。 1961 年，丹尼尔·埃尔斯伯格（Daniel Ellsberg）（泄露五角大楼文件的同一个人）推广了这一概念。埃尔斯伯格发现，人们更喜欢具有可计算风险的选择，即使在未知的替代方案可能会产生更好结果的情况下也是如此。Concept