source: How to Deal With Uncertainty
🗒️我的笔记
Our tendency to favor known risk over unknown risk is called ambiguity aversion. The concept was popularized by Daniel Ellsberg (the same guy who leaked the Pentagon Papers) in 1961. Ellsberg found that people prefer choices with calculable risk, even in instances where the unknown alternative might produce a better result.
我们偏爱已知风险而不是未知风险的倾向被称为模糊厌恶。 1961 年，丹尼尔·埃尔斯伯格（Daniel Ellsberg）（泄露五角大楼文件的同一个人）推广了这一概念。埃尔斯伯格发现，人们更喜欢具有可计算风险的选择，即使在未知的替代方案可能会产生更好结果的情况下也是如此。Concept
In Jonathan Field’s book Uncertainty, he recommends creating “certainty anchors,” things that add reliability to your life when you may otherwise feel you’re spinning in a million different directions. These anchors can ground you so you have a greater capacity to sit with the unknown.
在乔纳森·菲尔德（Jonathan Field）的《不确定性》一书中，他建议创建“确定性锚”，这些东西可以为你的生活增加可靠性，否则你可能会觉得自己正朝着一百万个不同的方向旋转。这些锚可以让你脚踏实地，这样你就有更大的能力面对未知的事物。
One reason it’s so hard for us to sit with ambiguity is that our brain has a bias toward negative outcomes. If you are given a bag with a known mix of 50 red and 50 black balls and a bag with an unknown mix, it’s easier to assume that the unknown bag has worse odds than 50-50, even when it could just as well have better odds. While it’s easy to see the potential downside of turning toward the unknown, it’s much more difficult to see the potential upside.
我们很难接受含糊不清的事情，原因之一是我们的大脑对负面结果有偏见。如果给你一个已知包含 50 个红球和 50 个黑球的袋子和一个未知混合的袋子，则更容易假设未知袋子的赔率比 50-50 更差，即使它可能有更好的赔率赔率。虽然很容易看到转向未知事物的潜在负面影响，但看到潜在的好处却要困难得多。