source: Tech is Going to Get Much Bigger
🗒️我的笔记
从现在开始，科技将是软件和硬件的结合。
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Tech is going to get so much bigger in the next decade or two that it will make everything up until now look quaint by comparison. We’re standing on that part of the curve that looks steep in the present but will look prairie flat looking back from the future.
在未来的一二十年里，科技将变得如此之大，以至于它将使到目前为止的一切看起来都很古怪。我们正站在曲线的一部分，现在看起来很陡峭，但从未来看起来会很平坦。
I’ve been writing around various parts of this thesis for a while. The simple version comes from Working Harder and Smarter, which I wrote last September:
我围绕这篇论文的各个部分写了一段时间。简单的版本来自我去年9月写的《更加努力和更加聪明》：
Until the 1970s, tech was about hardware.
在20世纪70年代之前，技术是关于硬件的。
From the 1970s to today, tech has been about software.
从20世纪70年代到今天，技术一直是关于软件的。
From here on out, tech will be about the combination of software and hardware.
从现在开始，科技将是软件和硬件的结合。
That was 14 months ago, and already so much has changed.
那是14个月前的事了，已经发生了很大的变化。 就消耗品而言，我们周围的一切其实只有三大支柱。我们有能量、智慧和灵巧。
Labor is becoming a scalable utility – plug in, power up, and produce.
劳动力正在成为一种可扩展的公用事业—插上电源，启动，生产。
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At the end of all of the interviews we do for Age of Miracles, we ask each guest what the world will look like when we have abundant energy. Isaiah Taylor, the founder of Valar Atomics, gave an answer that frames the situation perfectly:
在我们为《奇迹时代》所做的所有采访结束时，我们会问每一位客人，当我们拥有充足的能源时，世界会是什么样子。Valar Atomics的创始人Isaiah Taylor给出了一个完美的答案：
_There are only really three pillars to anything around us, as far as consumable goods. We’ve got energy, intelligence, and dexterity. _
就消耗品而言，我们周围的一切其实只有三大支柱。我们有能量、智慧和灵巧。
_Those are the three things that go into any physical good, any product. And we are like right on the cusp of getting all three for free, which is kind of unbelievable, right? Dexterity has been, you know, worked on for a while, but it was always bottlenecked by intelligence. What OpenAI is doing on the intelligence front is genuinely making intelligence free. _
这是任何物质产品都需要的三个要素。我们就像是在免费获得这三个的风口浪尖上，这有点难以置信，对吧？你知道，敏捷已经发展了一段时间，但它总是受到智力的考验。OpenAI在智能方面所做的是真正让智能免费。
_And then I plan to make energy free. So we’ve got free energy, free intelligence, and we’ve got dexterity with projects like Figure and Optimus.
然后我计划让能源免费。所以我们有免费的能源，免费的智能，我们有像Figure和Optimus这样的项目的灵活性。
**每个市场看起来都更像软件Every Market Will Look More Like Software **
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As the costs of energy, intelligence, and dexterity approach zero, the cost and speed of manipulating and distributing atoms will approach the cost and speed of manipulating and distributing bits.
随着能量、智能和灵巧的成本趋近于零，操纵和分配原子的成本和速度将接近操纵和分配比特的成本和速度。
I said approach, not match, because the laws of physics stand in the way. Bits can move at the speed of light; atoms cannot. Bits can cost practically zero; atoms cannot. The cost and speed of physical things will asymptote somewhere above zero, but they’ll get much cheaper and faster than they are today.
我说的是接近，而不是匹配，因为物理定律阻碍了我们。比特能以光速移动，原子却不能。比特的成本几乎为零；原子却不能。物理事物的成本和速度将在某处趋近于零，但它们会比现在更便宜、更快。
Turning labor into CapEx will change cost structures. It will require more upfront investment and enable lower marginal costs.
将劳动力转化为资本支出将改变成本结构。这将需要更多的前期投资，并降低边际成本。
As that happens, every industry will come to look more like the software industry. Faster growth, higher margins, more R&D.
在这种情况下，每个行业都会变得更像软件业。增长更快、利润更高、研发更多。